The renewed hostilities between Iran and Israel, which escalated sharply in June 2025, may have far-reaching consequences for Nigeria.
Although not directly involved, Nigeria could feel the ripple effects due to its oil-dependent economy, diplomatic ties, and internal social dynamics.
Below are five key ways Nigeria could be affected:
1. Fluctuations in Oil Prices and Economic Consequences
The conflict has unsettled the global oil market, pushing up crude prices amid fears of supply chain disruptions—particularly if Iran’s oil infrastructure or major shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz are targeted.
As Africa’s top oil producer, Nigeria could see increased revenue from higher oil prices, boosting foreign reserves and government earnings. However, this potential gain comes with a downside.
Domestically, fuel prices—which have already surpassed ₦900 per litre—could continue to climb, putting pressure on transportation, manufacturing, and the overall cost of living. This would likely intensify inflation and diminish the benefits of increased oil income.
2. Threats to Nigerians Living Abroad
Nigerians living in both Iran and Israel—particularly students and professionals in cities like Tehran and Tel Aviv—are facing heightened risks due to airstrikes and missile attacks.
Some have reportedly taken shelter in underground bunkers as normal life grinds to a halt. While the Nigerian government has begun making evacuation plans, it has come under fire for delays compared to quicker responses from countries like the U.S. and China.
The urgent challenge remains ensuring the safety and swift return of Nigerian citizens in these high-risk zones.
3. Risk of Religious and Sectarian Tensions at Home
Nigeria’s religious diversity, with large Christian and Muslim populations, makes it vulnerable to external conflicts that carry sectarian undertones.
As sentiments around the Iran-Israel standoff intensify, local divisions could be inflamed—especially given Iran’s previous efforts to spread Shia Islam in Nigeria through movements associated with figures like Sheikh Zakzaky.
If local groups begin to take sides, the country could face fresh internal tensions. Nigeria will need to maintain a neutral stance diplomatically while reinforcing internal peace and security.
4. Disruption of Trade and Religious Tourism
Nigeria has existing diplomatic and economic ties with both Israel and Iran. It imports agricultural technology and other products from Israel and has limited trade with Iran. An extended conflict could strain these partnerships and disrupt the supply of certain goods.
Religious travel is also at risk. Christian pilgrimages to Israel and Shia Muslim visits to Iran could decline sharply due to safety concerns, affecting both cultural exchange and tourism-related income.
Nigeria’s calls for peace and de-escalation highlight its desire to protect these bilateral relationships without appearing partisan.
5. Diplomatic Dilemmas and External Pressures
With global powers like the U.S., China, and Russia drawn into the Iran-Israel conflict, Nigeria finds itself in a delicate diplomatic spot.
Its criticism of Israel’s initial military action and its push for dialogue have sparked debate over the direction of its foreign policy. A perceived alignment with one side may strain Nigeria’s relationships with key international allies.
Moreover, prolonged instability in the region could divert global attention and resources away from Nigeria’s internal security needs—such as the fight against insurgency and banditry—at a time when international support remains crucial.
